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Grain Report Wednesday - 31st May

Market Almost Open - CGX daily report

What price do you want for your grain?

Overnight moves in international markets and yesterday's actual traded prices across Australia are below to help you determine your price. If you need to change your offer price, simply edit it before market open.

Chart including Wheat CBOT prices, Wheat Black Sea prices, Canola ICE prices and Canola MATIF prices

Grain trade prices for Australia Grain (wheat, barley, Sorghum, Lupins, Canola, Faba Beans, Oats, Chickpeas and lentils)

Look Out or Last Mayday Mayday!

  • Like the WA Premier, Kochie, Alistair Clarkson, Dimmer Hardwick, Tina Turner, Rolf Harris and the Carlton Football club, the markets threw in the towel last night.

  • Why?

  • Maybe because the Yanks had a long weekend and they got a new credit card to throw some more money away, and it was turnaround Tuesday?

  • The US winter wheat crop conditions improved 3% to 34% Good to Excellent, and Poor to Absolutely Buggered dropped from 40% a week ago to 35% this week.

  • But this is not a game changer.

  • Spring wheat, corn and bean plantings are going along at a good pace and are almost done.

  • However, corn conditions were rated at 69% good to excellent compared to 73% a year ago. The trade expected the conditions to be a bit better.

  • These are the first corn condition ratings for the 23/24 crop and the comparison from last year is out by one week, so it's like comparing Port Power supporters with Adelaide Crow supporters.

  • It has been dry in the US corn belt and rain is needed over the next couple of weeks, but again, early days.

  • Interesting to see Chicago Soft Red winter wheat and Corn are around the same value for the nearby contract and on a FOB basis ex US Gulf, US Soft red wheat (ASW, but not as good) was USD $250 FOB and Corn more expensive at USD $256 FOB.

  • However, as we move forward into new crop, this spread opens back up to 100 cents a bushel (USD $36 per tonne).

  • On a world stage, higher corn prices see more wheat fed to animals, increasing wheat demand, and decreasing corn demand.

  • This shift in demand becomes a price driver for wheat. But the forecast for next year, as per the spread reopening back to 100 cents / bushel tells us, plenty of corn and a loser balance sheet, so it will go into animals.

  • If there is a problem with US Corn production, as the other majors are in the bin, then this can be supportive to prices.

  • But just like the Carlton Football club, the USDA has gone the early crow on their 23/24 Corn crop, calling it 388 million tonnes, or 40 million tonnes more than last year’s crop.

  • I think governments like to release “bearish” forecasts when inflation is an issue, we don’t want to drive food prices higher, so let’s be conservative.

  • India and the Egyptians are the guru’s at releasing bearish stock and production reports.

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