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Grain Report Tuesday - 30th May

Market Almost Open - CGX daily report

What price do you want for your grain?

Overnight moves in international markets and yesterday's actual traded prices across Australia are below to help you determine your price. If you need to change your offer price, simply edit it before market open.

Chart including Wheat CBOT prices, Wheat Black Sea prices, Canola ICE prices and Canola MATIF prices

Grain trade prices for Australia Grain (wheat, barley, Sorghum, Lupins, Canola, Faba Beans, Oats, Chickpeas and lentils)

Look Out!

  • No US markets last night as the Yanks celebrated getting a new credit card, so they all hit the Shopping Centres to buy “stuff”.

  • What’s USD31.4 trillion these days; a drop in the bucket.

  • If we cut out the smashed avocado on toast every Sunday morning, cancel 3 of our streaming services and maybe bring our lunch to work, we should be able to pay this off in 740 years.

  • In more important news, the Australian Trade Minister, “Zoolander” met with his Chinese counterpart Mr. Wang last week (giggle giggle, grow up Hogan), and has gone the early crow, advising China will remove the 80% tariff on Australian barley imports in the next few weeks. We are getting close to the agreed 3-month extension to review the antidumping claim without having to rely on a WTO decision, so the early crow is like claiming the Eagles are tanking for a number 1 draft pick.

  • There will be some commentators who will say it's too late in our season to export to China this season, because stems are full, but I am sure if the elevation margins make it work, it’s amazing what can change

  • At a parity price, based on today’s FIS values in WA, Feed Barley is USD $220 FOB. That’s where you are selling it. China will pay a fair bit more than that. On the East Coast, our market at FOB parity would be USD $240-USD $250, so it is unlikely it will work from here and compete with WA/SA.

  • The current spread, ASW to Feed Barley in WA is around $60 per tonne.

  • On the East Coast, this spread to SFW wheat is around $40 per tonne.

  • There is one “slight” negative, as we will see increased competition from Russia who are building a corridor for the supply of grain into China. More to understand the impact on this, as it will only supply Northeast China and Mongolia.

  • Russia grows around 20 million tonnes of barley and exports just under 5 million tonnes, whilst Australia will grow between 8 to 10 million tonnes this year, depending on where your rain gauge is located.

  • One thing to note for the 23/24 season, and given current forecasts, Australia will export around half of forecast exports this year.

  • So, we halve our barley exports and add in a large new buyer called China, so long Saudi, it was nice whilst it lasted, but we have found a new Barley Daddy.

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