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Grain Report Friday - 02nd June

Market Almost Open - CGX daily report

What price do you want for your grain?

Overnight moves in international markets and yesterday's actual traded prices across Australia are below to help you determine your price. If you need to change your offer price, simply edit it before market open.

Chart including Wheat CBOT prices, Wheat Black Sea prices, Canola ICE prices and Canola MATIF prices

Grain trade prices for Australia Grain (wheat, barley, Sorghum, Lupins, Canola, Faba Beans, Oats, Chickpeas and lentils)

Dominic Hogan Outlook commodities comments

Look Out!

  • Markets found some love again last night with Chicago and Kansas wheat up AUD $10 and AUD $7 respectively.

  • The Saudis are tending for 480,000 tonnes of wheat for delivery in the August – September period, which will be interesting to see where the Ruskies hit the new crop positions.

  • Russian wheat is currently quoted at USD $246 FOB (free on board) for June and USD $255 FOB for August – September.

  • This is below the USD $275 floor Hokey Pokey wanted to implement a couple of months ago.

  • The world market is the world market, and the Frogs and Sergeant Schultz dropped their pants and went well under the Ruskie unofficial floor, demonstrating a floor only works if you are the ground floor, and not the mezzanine level.

  • Russian wheat has come off USD $18 per tonne over the last month and Australia has come off USD $1 per tonne over the last month.

  • Aussie wheat is now priced at USD $47 over the Ruskies; go you good thing. That spread is on the back of a 39 million bin buster crop. Just imagine what that spread would be if we produced a smaller crop in 23/24?

  • Now for the good news, in a normal year, July – August is seasonally the low point in the Northern Hemisphere markets.

  • But is the 23/24 season a normal year?

  • At this stage apart from the Black Sea situation, the stocks held by the majors being tighter and the Cats not making finals, the world views 23/24 as a normal year.

  • (subscriber prices, market floors and reality)

  • But markets are markets, and the Saudi tender might give us a feel for the new crop bottom. The Ruskies might drop their pants to keep winning business.

  • However, it's June, and a long way to go, so I wouldn’t be dropping my pants yet and tearing up my Carlton membership.

  • I tell a lie; if I was a Carlton supporter, I would tear up my membership, who am I kidding.

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