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Grain Report Thursday - 20th April

What price do you want for your grain?

Overnight moves in international markets and yesterday's actual traded prices across Australia are below to help you determine your price. If you need to change your offer price, simply edit it before market open.

Chart including Wheat CBOT prices, Wheat Black Sea prices, Canola ICE prices and Canola MATIF prices

Grain trade prices for Australia Grain (wheat, barley, Sorghum, Lupins, Canola, Faba Beans, Oats, Chickpeas and lentils)

Look Out!

  • Well, well, well, said the man looking at 3 wells; that is the end of the wheat bull run.

  • Chicago and Kansas were off strongly last night, back to where we were last week.

  • Corn and beans were also off.

  • I have just put $20 bucks on the Egyptians calling a tender today, an absolute monty, can’t lose. Remember, gamble responsibly.

  • Just to add to the suffering, Matif and Winnipeg canola seed were also both off.

  • So, what changed overnight?

  • Nothing in the grand scheme of things.

  • The EU is now planning farmer support programmes for the five countries that border Ukraine, so grain flow starts again. Countries like Poland and Slovakia put bans on Ukraine grain transiting (a woke word for dumping) through their countries, as it started driving down their domestic markets. The EU farmer support program also requires the grain passing through the EU countries is only for export, and not for the domestic market? Yeah right!

  • Did the EU consult the Australian Barley Board on this strategy? As if the grain passing through these countries by road won’t go into a feed buyer? Just like NSW barley trade flow through Victoria in the State regulated days, it is hard to tell the difference between what came from where. Hell, I still struggle to identify a Queenslander or a South Australian that’s comes over our border until they speak.

  • The market has seen this move as bearish; at the same time in the background, a building called Hokey Pokey, is exploding, saying the corridor is not going to be extended. Nothing to see here.

  • In more Ruskie news, the Ag minister has just called their 2023 wheat crop at 78 million tonnes, which is 8 million tonnes under the private analysts, and 14 million under this years USDA guess.

  • Russia is on a mission to inflate grain prices to protect their growers, so they are not going to come out with a large crop; it’s all part of the game.

  • For total grains, Russia produced 153.8 million tonnes in 2022, and the forecast is for 123 million tonnes in 2023? WTF, that’s a 20% production drop and they have some more Ukrainian acres they reclaimed.

  • The Ag minister said, “we are counting on a decent and, very importantly, balanced harvest”.

  • What does that mean; “a balanced harvest”? Maybe more proteins, less carbs, don’t answer emails after 5 pm and a 4-day working week?

  • Anyway a 78 million tonne wheat crop is interesting. If Australia grows 30 million tonnes, then with just Russia and Australia, we just dropped 23 million tonnes of the major exports production. Ukraine’s production is down and the only country to pick up is Argie, who might be up 10 million, but it doesn’t offset the 23 million tonne drop? Where does this wheat come from?

  • Does anyone else think the major exporters balance sheet for 23/24 might be a bit tight? Or is it just me?

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