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Grain Report Thursday - 09th February

Our goal is to help growers and their agents determine the selling price for their grain by providing relevant price discovery each day. Check out the moves in overnight international markets and yesterday's actual traded prices across Australia. There's also market commentary giving context and comparisons to prices of international physical markets. If you need to change your offer price, simply edit it before market open.

What price do you want for your grain?

Chart including Wheat CBOT prices, Wheat Black Sea prices, Canola ICE prices and Canola MATIF prices

Grain trade prices for Australia Grain (wheat, barley, Sorghum, Lupins, Canola, Faba Beans, Oats, Chickpeas and lentils)

Look Out!

  • Markets all up after the release of the USDA World Ag Supply and Demand Estimate Guess.

  • However, it wasn’t all that exciting as the changes made were mostly factored into the market.

  • The wheat balance sheet was slightly bearish with increased production and stocks.

  • The Yanks increased the Aussie crop by 1.4 million tonnes to 38 million tonnes.

  • The Ruskie wheat crop was increased by a whopping 1 million tonnes to 92 million tonnes.

  • Everyone else without a surveillance balloon is calling it 100 million tonnes.

  • On the wheat balance sheet, consumption was increased by 2 million tonnes as corn gets displaced by wheat into chooks.

  • Corn is becoming the price driver for wheat.

  • The Yanks dropped Argie corn production by 5 million tonnes to 47 million tonnes.

  • The world corning ending stocks for 22/23 (excluding China) fall by 8 million tonnes to a very tight 89 million tonnes.

  • The world (excluding China) consumes 2.38 million tonnes per day (burp).

  • 89 Million tonnes of stock, means the world has 37 days of stock left before all the animals die and we have nothing to eat at the movies.

  • In comparison we eat 1.77 million tonnes of wheat per day (excluding China). We have 125 million tonnes of wheat stocks at the end of the 22/23 season which is enough for 70 days until we all die.

  • We take China out of the balance sheets (also known as Chinese Take-Away) because China has its own world balance sheet with wheat stocks of 145 million tonnes and corn stocks of 207 million tonnes.

  • China is important regarding imports, but they are not an exporter and because they carry so much stock, including them in the balance sheet distorts the numbers that drive price.

  • The bean balance sheet was bullish, as production dropped by 5 million tonnes, which was all mainly in Argie, where their crop was reduced to 41 million tonnes.

  • Again, some glass ½ empty analysts are calling the Argie bean crop as low as 34 million tonnes.

  • However, we cannot lose sight of the fact that overall soybean stocks increased by 4 million tonnes this year to 102 million tonnes or 100 days of stock.

  • Take home message; a tighter corn balance sheet is good for Aussie grain prices.

Most importantly we're always here to help!

Please give us a call or email if you have any questions.

Call 1800 000 410 or Email

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