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Grain Report Monday - 06th February

Our goal is to help growers and their agents determine the selling price for their grain by providing relevant price discovery each day. Check out the moves in overnight international markets and yesterday's actual traded prices across Australia. There's also market commentary giving context and comparisons to prices of international physical markets. If you need to change your offer price, simply edit it before market open.

What price do you want for your grain?

Chart including Wheat CBOT prices, Wheat Black Sea prices, Canola ICE prices and Canola MATIF prices

Grain trade prices for Australia Grain (wheat, barley, Sorghum, Lupins, Canola, Faba Beans, Oats, Chickpeas and lentils)

Look Out!

  • Wheat off on Friday night, corn up and beans off.

  • The AUD fell below 70 cents, which should be reflected in firmer prices for Aussie commodities this week.

  • Just when things were starting to progress with trade relationships with China, things have ballooned out of control.

  • The Chinese say it was just a scientific weather balloon that just happened to blow off course.

  • It probably started over Western Australia, checking out the barley crop and coal supply, then floated over the SA Barossa wine regions, finishing up in QLD checking out the number of cattle on feed.

  • Whilst it has created tension between Biden and the Australian XI ( Xi Ping), sometimes Australia gets caught in the whirlpool because the US is one of our Sugar Daddies.

  • If this balloon incident pops, it will drive US commodity prices down, mainly beans and corn, which will drag wheat down as well.

  • Maybe Tennis Albo should ask Penny and her father to jump on a plane to see if they can make another White.

  • In other news, the USDA will put out their monthly World Ag Supply and Demand Estimate on Wednesday (early Thursday for us).

  • I wonder if they will increase the current Russian wheat crop in line with the rest of the world.

  • The USDA has the Rusky crop at 91 million tonnes and the rest of the world, including the data from the Chinese weather balloon, have it as 100 million mt.

  • It doesn’t really matter regarding supply as Russia cannot export any more than 4.5 million tonnes per month.

  • However, it gets interesting when you start to plug in some numbers for the 23 / 24 wheat crop, especially with forecasts of Russia producing 85 million mt and Ukraine forecast to produce 15 million mt.

  • Russia, like Western Australia, will start the 23/24 marketing year with a large carry in stocks; potentially over 20 million mt.

  • If they grow 85 million mt for 23/24, and they still export 45 million mt, and will have carryover stocks of 16 million mt, which is large, but then again if they get shut off from the rest of the world, they probably need to hold more strategic reserves. The Ruskies eat about 50% of their crop.

  • However, if you crunch some numbers on the total world wheat stocks for the 23/24 marketing year, stocks held by major exporters could potentially tighten to low levels, and be supportive of prices, irrespective of the Black Sea situation.

  • A long way off, and a 1000 weather and political events to happen before then though.

Most importantly we're always here to help!

Please give us a call or email if you have any questions.

Call 1800 000 410 or Email

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