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Grain Report Monday - 06th March

Our goal is to help growers and their agents determine the selling price for their grain by providing relevant price discovery each day. Check out the moves in overnight international markets and yesterday's actual traded prices across Australia. There's also market commentary giving context and comparisons to prices of international physical markets. If you need to change your offer price, simply edit it before market open.

What price do you want for your grain?

Chart including Wheat CBOT prices, Wheat Black Sea prices, Canola ICE prices and Canola MATIF prices

Grain trade prices for Australia Grain (wheat, barley, Sorghum, Lupins, Canola, Faba Beans, Oats, Chickpeas and lentils)

Look Out!

  • Wheat markets off slightly on Friday night.

  • Corn and beans up.

  • GrainCorp came out with a forecast for the 2023/24 wheat crop of 25-26 million tonnes.

  • As tractors and seeders are being dusted off, the “BOMB” is forecasting a dry March – May period.

  • I have just checked the date and it’s the 6th of March, so we might be getting a little bit ahead of ourselves.

  • But for the ones with crystal balls, an Ozzie wheat crop of that size makes things interesting, domestically, and globally.

  • Let’s turn the envelope over and scribble some numbers on the back.

  • WA – 10 million, SA – 4 Million, Vic 3 Million, NSW 7 Million, QLD 1.5 million = 25.50 million tonnes.

  • East Coast wheat carryover this year will be around 2 million tonnes.

  • Our domestic markets need around 6.5 million tonnes, so exports on the East Coast next year could be around 6 million tonnes, or more than half of this years export forecast.

  • This means the domestic market needs to work harder to stop wheat leaving in the boats.

  • We might need Tony Abbott to intervene and “Stop the Boats”.

  • WA and SA will have a higher carryover and smaller domestic market, and exports will be around 15-16 million tonnes.

  • Globally, with Australia producing a 25-26 million tonne crop, and Russia producing 85 million, Ukraine 15 million tonnes, I have just wiped 34 million tonnes off the 23/24 production by major exporters.

  • Ramp Argie back up 8 million to 20 million, and Canada up 1 million (because they will have 1 million more acres of wheat – maybe), but I can't find too many more increases in the majors.

  • So I am still 25 million tonnes less wheat next year, which means the stocks held by the major exporters will fall below 50 million tonnes.

  • This is tight and extremely supportive of world prices in 23/24.

  • We are also moving into the period when crops are made in the Northern Hemisphere, their spring. If there is a production reduction anywhere, as crops come out of dormancy, things might get interesting?

  • Just to add a little bit more fuel, that record crop in India is being wound back to 107 million tonnes, down 5 and one highly regarded analyst even suggested India may need to import wheat in 23/24.

  • Also, I am not so certain the exporters in Australia are flush with stocks from harvest. We have exported some large volumes in October – February period, so maybe in Q2, export buying demand ramps up a bit, as the stems are full, and the exporters will need your grain.

  • Finally, ASX March wheat closed up $8.50 on Friday. That’s interesting.

  • The perfect storm is building which creates a perfect opportunity to list your grain at the price you want on CGX, because there are going to be buyers out there who want it.

Most importantly we're always here to help!

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