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Grain Report Wednesday - 07th December



Our goal is to help growers and their agents determine the selling price for their grain by providing relevant price discovery each day. Check out the moves in overnight international markets and yesterday's actual traded prices across Australia. There's also market commentary giving context and comparisons to prices of international physical markets. If you need to change your offer price, simply edit it before market open.


What price do you want for your grain?

Chart including Wheat CBOT prices, Wheat Black Sea prices, Canola ICE prices and Canola MATIF prices

Grain trade prices for Australia Grain (wheat, barley, Sorghum, Lupins, Canola, Faba Beans, Oats, Chickpeas and lentils)

  • Wheat continues to fall, off AUD $29 since summer began, 7 days ago. Beans buck the trend and were up strongly.

  • The ASX Jan 23 wheat contract was off $9, settling at $381. This time last year, ASX Jan 22 wheat was trading at $415, and the AUD/USD was 70 cents.

  • We had a record wheat crop, no war in the Black Sea, some quality issues in NSW and the world wheat balance sheet was tight, with world stocks to use ratio, (without Chinese production and stocks included) at 21%, down 2% from the previous year.

  • Chicago wheat was trading at 797 US cents/bushel (AUD $416) and basis was around even to -$1.

  • Fast forward 12 months, our crop is almost the same as last year, except some more quality issues on the East Coast, which will see milling wheat supply a lot tighter.

  • USA Hard Red Winter wheat (APW) ex Pacific North West is up USD $34, French wheat is up USD $25 and WA FOB values are up USD $12 from the same time last year.

  • The only one to fall away is Russia, with a 100+ million wheat crop, and extra execution (insurance) costs. Russian wheat is down USD $26 from the same time last year.

  • The world balance sheet is tighter with the stocks to use ratio, falling another 2% to 19% (excluding China).

  • Oh, and last time I checked the newspaper, there is still a conflict going on in the Black Sea.

  • So, over a 12-month period, with the world and Australia in a completely different position (quality), the ASX Jan wheat contract is $34 lower, even though the AUD is weaker by 3 cents.

  • Someone will say we are reflecting Chicago wheat futures which are trading at 706 cents bushel (AUD $387), AUD $29 lower than last year. Chicago wheat futures, which we all look to, is Soft Red Winter quality, which is ASW.

  • ASX wheat is APW quality and competes with Hard Red Winter (Kansas). Kansas wheat is trading 20 cents a bushel higher this year.

  • One day, someone will explain these correlations to me, but the numbers and circumstances don’t add up to a lower market for Aussie wheat.

  • Canola has taken a huge hit over the last month, even after they reduced the Canadian Canola Crop by 1 million tonnes to 18.2 million mt. Track canola has fallen AUD $140 pmt over the last month.

  • Winnipeg (Canada) Canola Futures have fallen AUD $45 and Matif (EU Futures) have fallen AUD $147.85 over the last month.

  • There were concerns about the Australian crop, quality, and access on the East Coast in November. But harvest is progressing and as we saw this week ABARE forecast the crop to hit a record 7.3 million mt.

  • So, this bit is bearish. But globally, we are also priced USD $160 under Canada values into Europe.

Most importantly we're always here to help!

Please give us a call or email if you have any questions.


Call 1800 000 410 or Email support@cgx.com.au

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