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Grain Report Wednesday - 04th January



Our goal is to help growers and their agents determine the selling price for their grain by providing relevant price discovery each day. Check out the moves in overnight international markets and yesterday's actual traded prices across Australia. There's also market commentary giving context and comparisons to prices of international physical markets. If you need to change your offer price, simply edit it before market open.


What price do you want for your grain?

Chart including Wheat CBOT prices, Wheat Black Sea prices, Canola ICE prices and Canola MATIF prices

Grain trade prices for Australia Grain (wheat, barley, Sorghum, Lupins, Canola, Faba Beans, Oats, Chickpeas and lentils)

  • US Markets got smashed last night, not a great start to the year.

  • A little bit of rain in South America has resulted in the row crop markets, corn and soybeans taking a breath, or a sigh of relief.

  • More rain is needed, and the Argie crop is not out of jail yet.


  • Wheat was off for no reason, apart from pathetic US exports in the last week of December and some faith in the Russian’s pumping out wheat exports over the next 6 months to feed the world.

  • Analysts are now forecasting Russian wheat exports at 44 - 45 million tonnes. The USDA has pencilled them in for 43 million tonnes in their latest forecast.

  • Over the month of December, Russian wheat values fell around USD $7 per tonne and are currently around the USD $305 – USD $310 FOB (Free On Board) level.

  • This is equivalent to AUD $420 FIS (Free In Store) WA / $400 Track VIC for ASW wheat. That’s the bottom.


  • We have already seen feed wheat sales into Asia last week at USD $318 FOB level (FIS WA AUD $439 / Track AUD $415 VIC), so we don’t even need to chase the Russians to the bottom.

  • The local markets are trading at AUD $355 FIS WA and AUD $380 Track VIC for ASW, so WA is under export parity by AUD $85 and East Coast ASW is AUD $35 under export parity?

  • So, East versus West. East Coast ASW is worth more than West Coast ASW, and the West Coast also has a freight advantage, which makes the difference greater.

  • Like our football teams, I think the East Coast ASW is so much better than the WA ASW, so of course the farmer deserves a huge premium (how does one type with sarcasm).


  • But before a civil war breaks out, WA farmers are winning the APW competition, by AUD $40 per tonne, so we will call it even.

  • Australian APW FOB values are quoted at USD $354 ex WA, which was down USD $7 last week, Merry Christmas.

  • At this level, WA APW export parity is AUD $495 FIS Kwinana, which is only AUD $45 over the market, so within range after execution risk, demurrage, finance etc.

  • On the East Coast, if export values are around USD $350 level at parity, APW Track Vic is equal to AUD $470. The market is currently trading AUD $50 - AUD $60 under this level.


  • Everyone will say the market differences are due to the supply and demand in each state, which is correct.

  • The demand comes from the world market, who’s prices are roughly the same for each market, as we compete with other world exporters, and they don’t differentiate between WA ASW and SA ASW.

  • However, the supply is controlled by the grower and maybe the trouser belts are looser in the West? I reckon tighten them up a notch or 2


Most importantly we're always here to help!

Please give us a call or email if you have any questions.


Call 1800 000 410 or Email support@cgx.com.au

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