Grain Report Tuesday - 1st October
What price do you want for your grain?
Overnight moves in international markets and yesterday's actual traded prices across Australia are below to help you determine your price. If you need to change your offer price, simply edit it before market open.
Grains complex slightly higher on USDA stocks and production reports that were not as bad as expected.
Despite very high production across all grains, improved export demand is keeping the lid on US stocks.
Export inspections for US wheat and corn are up around 30% on last year.
No talk of significant crop damage from Helene, seems most of the issues were east of key growing areas.
A strike planned for US East coast and Gulf ports won’t help US exports.
Key theme of lower European production continues….
EU reduced 24/25 soft wheat crop production estimates from 116.1 to 114.6mt.
Russian wheat prices are rising (+US5/t)Â as a prolonged spell of hot and dry weather crimped corn production and is threatening wheat plantings and '25 winter crop production.
Russia raised the export duty on corn 10-fold during the week, meaning they don’t want traders to export.
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Dryness in Brazil props up oilseeds
Funds have significantly reduced their short positions in grain, particularly beans, as they become nervous about ongoing dryness in Brazil.
Significant uncertainty remains around how Chinese stimulus measures will impact oilseeds.
EU rapeseed production estimates were lowered for a 5th consecutive month by Strategie Grains with them suggesting decreased output and increased demand will necessitate larger imports. The EU’s enforcement of deforestation regs will likely see soybean imports banned.
There’s a bit going on across the soybean complex.
Local prices remain flat
ASX wheat down $3/t to $329/t
$A consolidating above 69USc
Commencement of barley harvest in the north and old crop selling is putting pressure on nearby values with the large spread to wheat buying barley some demand
In the south, end-users are struggling to extend coverage amid production uncertainty with a large bid/offer spread reflecting the differing outlooks between seller (growers) and buyers (trade). Estimates are that around 10% of the southern crop has been lost to frost with canola & barley most severely impacted.
BOM forecasts has a bit of rain for WA, southern and central VIC through to the Goulburn Valley
CGX old crop trades of APW2 $344/t Kwinana, APW $326/t Portland, non-GM canola $663.50/t Geelong & $718.50/t Pt Kembla, feed barley $302/t Portland
CGX open market call
Prices firm in the south, softer in north as old crop selling increases as harvest approaches, even in west with crop going backwards and international prices edging higher
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