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Grain Report Thursday - 30th March

Our goal is to help growers and their agents determine the selling price for their grain by providing relevant price discovery each day. Check out the moves in overnight international markets and yesterday's actual traded prices across Australia. There's also market commentary giving context and comparisons to prices of international physical markets. If you need to change your offer price, simply edit it before market open.

What price do you want for your grain?

Chart including Wheat CBOT prices, Wheat Black Sea prices, Canola ICE prices and Canola MATIF prices

Grain trade prices for Australia Grain (wheat, barley, Sorghum, Lupins, Canola, Faba Beans, Oats, Chickpeas and lentils)

Look Out!

  • Markets relatively quiet last night, with everyone positioning themselves for the USDA planting and quarterly stocks report.

  • New crop basis is back in negative territory.

  • If we apply what the world thinks today, with greater US planted wheat acres and a 28 million tonnes Aussie wheat crop due to El Nino, who has a dry sense of humour, then park up your tractors and buy basis and make heaps of money; you don’t even need to farm. It’s like Mick’s multi, an absolute sure thing.

  • Then again, I could be wrong, and you will lose everything, so probably best to keep farming.

  • The big news in the markets overnight is Cargill has decided to stop exporting Russian wheat from its grain terminal from July this year.

  • They own a “stake” in a terminal in Novorossiysk.

  • I am not sure how this works, because the other stakeholders probably wish to export, as the only place for inactive stakes is in a dead cow.

  • Does this mean, the other stakeholders buy Cargill out and just keep exporting?

  • It should be noted, Cargill have stated they intend to cease elevating wheat, but will keep shipping. So they will keep sending boats but not loading them.

  • Cargill will export around 2.2 million tonnes from this terminal in 2022/23 marketing year. Russia will export 45 million tonnes this marketing year, so we are talking 5% of Russian wheat exports.

  • Russia is forecast to export 4.3 million tonnes in March, an equal highest month.

  • Also, next year the Russian crop is forecast to be around 85 million tonnes and exports will be lower, however if they can export 4.3 million tonnes per month now, Cargill stopping one terminal that does 200 k per month will mean they can still export more than needed.

  • In addition to this there are rumours Viterra also plan to stop trading Russian wheat, however, there has been no official report.

  • Still on Russia, rumours continue about the restriction of wheat exports by the Government. Rumour is, they will not issue a phyto certificate if the sales price is too low. Hokey Pokey doesn’t want the sales price to fall below USD $275 free on board and asked traders not to drop their pants. Yeah, right, as if that would work. Hence, it needs to be restricted by the government, and hence the implementation of the “Not Righto Phyto Policy”.

  • China continues to buy US corn, purchasing another couple hundred thousand tonnes this week. Remember, ignore what China say or report, just watch what they do.

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