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Grain Report Thursday - 27th April

What price do you want for your grain?

Overnight moves in international markets and yesterday's actual traded prices across Australia are below to help you determine your price. If you need to change your offer price, simply edit it before market open.

Chart including Wheat CBOT prices, Wheat Black Sea prices, Canola ICE prices and Canola MATIF prices

Grain trade prices for Australia Grain (wheat, barley, Sorghum, Lupins, Canola, Faba Beans, Oats, Chickpeas and lentils)

Look Out!

  • Just like the Turkish Prime Minister, Erdogan, the markets collapsed and were rushed to hospital last night.

  • There are a lot of mixed reports regarding Erdogan’s condition, with some reporting extremely serious, in a critical condition after suffering a heart attack whilst others have reported nothing to see, he only has an upset stomach.

  • By the time I finish writing this report, we might have an accurate report.

  • The market is softer on rains in the US grain belts.

  • New crop ASX Jan 2024 wheat traded down to AUD $386 yesterday, the lowest since late January, where it settled at AUD $381.

  • If we adjust for currency, in late Jan ASX at export parity was USD $306 FOB (free on board).

  • Yesterday, this value at export parity was at USD $290 FOB, a drop of USD $16 per tonne.

  • Chicago Dec wheat futures were 767 cents per bushel in late Jan and today 672 cents per bushel, a change of 95 cents per bushel, or USD $34 per tonne.

  • Consequently, over this same period, basis has firmed from -$14 per tonne to +$15 per tonne, a change of $29 per tonne.

  • Did I tell you all to go long basis a few weeks ago? But remember, gamble responsibly, and you will lose more than you win, and do you really know what you’re gambling with.

  • Irrespective of those disclaimers, if we grow a smaller crop, we will see basis continue to firm.

  • But we also need to look at world prices to understand where our market will trade.

  • The Ruskies, who will be the bottom, if they are still a player in the world market, have their heart set on USD $275 FOB.

  • With a tighter crop, we will get USD $40 – USD $50 over the Ruskies, so call it USD $320 FOB, WA or AUD $440- AUD $450 FIS WA at 67 cents, and AUD $410 - $420 Track East Coast.

  • These are bottom numbers based on Ruskies at USD $275 FOB. Platts has the Ruskie new crop wheat, October at USD $275.50, so I am not making numbers up.

  • If we look at CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange) wheat and basis at AUD $40 over CME, what magic number does that spit out?

  • At 672 cents a bushel and basis AUD $40 over, at 67 cents, ASX east coast would be AUD $408.

  • Of course, if all returns to normality in the world, CME could continue to soften?

  • But looking at the major exporters stocks next year, based on forward production forecasts, things appear a little tighter next year.

Most importantly we're always here to help!

Please give us a call or email if you have any questions.

Call 1800 000 410 or Email

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