Grain Report Monday- 3rd November
- Clear Grain Exchange
- 2 days ago
- 3 min read
What price do you want for your grain?
Australia’s independent grain report—designed to help support your pricing decisions before the market opens at 10:00am AEST. If you need to change your offer price, simply edit it before market open.
I got a bit of a shock over the weekend to read that CBOT soybeans recorded its biggest monthly gain in over 5yrs during October, there have also been more modest gains in other CBOT grain markets. In contrast our market has been flat, which got me thinking, what’s going on? If anything, the global grains S&D continued to worsen through October, at least for wheat. Only slow European farmer selling and Black Sea exports has provided any support. Without official data it is hard to know what’s going on with US corn and soybeans yields, but I would hazard to guess that yields have been below lofty USDA projections in August, but not by enough to dramatically alter the global balance sheet, if anything, the rise in US corn carry-out will not be too burdensome, but larger than last year.
When things don’t make sense from a fundamental point of view, I like to take a step back and see how other related markets are tracking to help narrow down the reasons for the rally. We can rule out currency fluctuations and veg oil markets as key drivers and we can mostly rule out changes in S&D’s. The fact that the rally in soybeans hasn’t flowed into other markets is also telling. So, I’m going to put down the October moves to a change in sentiment related to news out of the latest US/China meeting and speculative shorts not wanting to be on the wrong side of a Trump trade. But the Trump Administration likes to make grand announcements that carry little formal substance with the details to be worked out later, which sees the benefits often watered down in reality. The fact that China hasn’t confirmed anything is telling. If this rally continues (which I doubt) and starts to flow into our prices we need to be prepared to sell something.
Grain Central reports that Australia is due to load what is believed to be its first cargo of canola bound for China since 2020 next week. The cargo, which appears on CBH Group’s shipping stem as 60,000t and on Southern Ports’ shipping list as 65,709t, is due to start loading on Tuesday at CBH’s Esperance terminal in Western Australia on board the Armonia A.
BOM rain forecast for much of the Australian wheat belt over the next week will most likely have the most market impact delaying harvest and improving sorghum crop prospects. The potential for quality downgrades is not on the radar yet. Hopefully, it's not a long, drawn-out harvest but that’s the way things are pointing.
Can’t think of anything else to add. I’ll do a call around of traders/brokers to get a feel for what’s going on in local markets, can’t see any reason for any dramatic moves. Sorghum was mentioned in dispatches in talk from the US/China meeting, but like with everything else, details on actual agreement were sketchy….we will get a better idea on what may play out with sorghum if there is sustained buying of US soybeans from China.
For further market commentary please contact the CGX team on 1800 000 410
CGX operates igrainX for grain on-farm
If you have any queries, we're always here to help!
Please give us a call or email if you have any questions.
Call 1800 000 410 or Email support@cgx.com.au
Comments