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Grain Report Monday - 27th March

Our goal is to help growers and their agents determine the selling price for their grain by providing relevant price discovery each day. Check out the moves in overnight international markets and yesterday's actual traded prices across Australia. There's also market commentary giving context and comparisons to prices of international physical markets. If you need to change your offer price, simply edit it before market open.

What price do you want for your grain?

Chart including Wheat CBOT prices, Wheat Black Sea prices, Canola ICE prices and Canola MATIF prices

Grain trade prices for Australia Grain (wheat, barley, Sorghum, Lupins, Canola, Faba Beans, Oats, Chickpeas and lentils)

Look Out…..and I mean Look Out!

  • Markets exploded on Friday night, due to “Ra Ra Ra Ras Putin, Russia’s greatest love machine” potentially banning exports.

  • I am not a conspiracy theorist, apart from knowing the moon landing was fake, who flew the planes into the Twin Towers and how 5G reduces immune system and is somehow linked to Covid, and don’t get me started on TikTok, but I digress. My conspiracy theory, even though I am not one is; The Chinese Cricket team and Hokey Pokey are working together, manipulating the markets.

  • China has bought just another 204,000 tonnes of US corn, making their total US Corn purchases around 3 million tonnes over the last 3 weeks.

  • Then whilst Xi and Putin are slurping vodka and caviar, Xi says, “ok Hokey Pokey, time to show the world who is in charge. It’s time to announce you might need to stop wheat exports and build government reserves.”

  • “But Boss, won’t that inflate world commodity prices? I don’t wish to upset your purchasing strategies.”

  • Xi strokes his cat on his lap, “All good Hokey Pokey. I have just filled my belly with US corn and have been buying boat loads of Aussie wheat. We are now ready. ”Que evil laugh from Jinping and Putin as they do a fist pump together.

  • Then Putin announces they may need to restrict / slow / impede / tax , call it what you want, wheat exports and the market reacts accordingly - Kaboom.

  • Russia is in a powerful position when it comes to food security, and by just stopping exports for one month, they would send the world markets into a panic.

  • Some say this is a tactical manoeuvre to lift some of the sanctions placed on Russia.

  • Other sources say, Russia has no intention of stopping exports, but are setting a floor in the market at USD $275 FOB (free on board) to cover farmer cost of production.

  • So, there you have it, the bottom of the market (now do a wolf whistle).

  • We will get a minimum USD $40 over Russia, which is where we have been for some time.

  • So that’s USD $315 FOB east coast and USD $320 FOB west coast for APW,

  • Export Parity “Bottom” is AUD $420 track east coast and AUD $450 FIS (free in store) WA.

  • Of course, if the internal Russian sources are wrong, and Russia does restrict wheat exports, then that market bottom will get smacked.

  • Then hang onto your hats as world buyers get slapped.

Most importantly we're always here to help!

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