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Grain Report Friday - 23rd December

Our goal is to help growers and their agents determine the selling price for their grain by providing relevant price discovery each day. Check out the moves in overnight international markets and yesterday's actual traded prices across Australia. There's also market commentary giving context and comparisons to prices of international physical markets. If you need to change your offer price, simply edit it before market open.

What price do you want for your grain?

Chart including Wheat CBOT prices, Wheat Black Sea prices, Canola ICE prices and Canola MATIF prices

Grain trade prices for Australia Grain (wheat, barley, Sorghum, Lupins, Canola, Faba Beans, Oats, Chickpeas and lentils)

  • Chicago wheat (ASW equivalent) and corn off, whilst Kanas wheat (APW equivalent) up slightly.

  • Soybeans off, with reduced Chinese imports over Oct – Nov period.

  • The oilseed complex has a bearish tone, with Brazil producing 152 million tonnes, up 23 million tonnes on last year (up 18%).

  • World soybean production is a record 391 million tonnes, up 35 million tonnes from last year, and ending stocks are up 7 million tonnes.

  • Apparently, we are going to consume 18 million more tonnes of soybeans this year.

  • However, crush margins in China continue to slide and are now negative, meaning for every tonne of beans they buy and then extract the oil and sell the meal, they lose money.

  • First rule of economics; If you have a negative crush margin, stop crushing.

  • Demand in China has been disrupted due to Covid lockdowns, however, with the Brazil bean harvest commencing, analysts forecast China have increased imports this month.

  • Soybeans are the largest produced oilseed in the world and influence other oilseed prices. The next largest oilseed producer is canola, which is around 85 million tonnes this year.

  • Combined, soybean and canola production is up 46 million tonnes this year and carry out stocks are up almost 10 million tonnes.

  • Prices for canola seed in Australia have fallen around AUD $100 to AUD $730 Track East Coast since the 1st of November.

  • Over the same period Winnipeg (Canada) canola futures have only fallen USD $13, however Matif (Europe) USD $96 per tonne.

  • The EU produces around 20 million tonnes of canola seed, but also imports 5.5 million tonnes (33% of world trade).

  • Our production is forecast to be over 7 million tonnes and our carry out stocks will be around 1.1 million tonnes, which is almost 3 times the carry over stocks from last season.

  • Australia is forecast to export 5.2 million tonnes of canola this year, which is around the same as last year. We make up 30% of the world's canola exports.

  • Canada produces 19 million tonnes of canola, almost 3 times what we produce and make up 50% of the world canola exports.

  • However, Canadian canola seed is quoted around USD $660 FOB Vancouver, or AUD $950 track equivalent East Coast Australia.

  • Their price is AUD $200 higher than ours before we look at freight advantage into Asian and European markets.

  • It is hard to find canola sales values, but I would not expect the Australian exporter to be discounting Canada. In fact, we have a freight advantage into Asian and European markets, so we should be higher on a FOB basis.

  • Maybe the export parity is over ~AUD $200, which hurts.

  • However, if we make up 30% of world trade, and we have 2.2 million tonnes of canola seed either already shipped or stemmed to be shipped through to Jan. This is 42% of our forecast.

  • The buyer and the world needs your seed, so as this is a market you can control, there's potential to lift your offers!

Most importantly we're always here to help!

Please give us a call or email if you have any questions.

Call 1800 000 410 or Email

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