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Grain Report Friday - 21st November


Market Almost Open - CGX daily report

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Australia’s independent grain report—designed to help support your pricing decisions before the market opens at 10:00am AEST. If you need to change your offer price, simply edit it before market open.



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Chart including Wheat CBOT prices, Wheat Black Sea prices, Canola ICE prices and Canola MATIF prices

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Dominic Hogan Outlook commodities comments

Grains eased overnight despite confirmation of further Chinese purchases of US grain. Soybeans are currently leading the grains complex with volatility related to gyrations around Chinese demand for US beans. The fundamental picture across grains remains heavy.


In local markets across the northern region (Bris/Newco port zones) prices have firmed $3-5/t for the week to $335/t wheat and $315/t barley delivered Downs. This comment from Grain Central summed things up. ‘There’s stuff on farm and stuff in depots, but growers are saying: ‘Prices are too cheap; I’ll talk to you in the New Year after they get back from the beach.” Pulse prices have started to firm a little as exporters seek to cover export commitments. Chickpeas have made it to $630/t Brisbane and $600/t Downs packers and $550/t nth NSW depots. Faba bean lifted to $350/t nth NSW depots, $415/t Brisbane, and $395/t Downs packers.

 

In the West, talking to a contact there, he said the stop start harvest has assisted prices. Growers have been happy to sell canola which has rallied to $720/t (GM) free-in-store and bits and pieces. In contrast to last year though, when the phone was ringing through harvest from trade shorts, the phones are quiet indicating that there are few export sales on the books. High yields mean that gross margins even at current low prices are ok and growers have strong equity positions so they will just chip away at sales.

 

In the south, cool showery weather is delaying harvest and providing an opportunity to offload old crop at a $20/t premium to new crop. Harvesting canola has started across southern NSW but cereals are still a couple of weeks away. The soft finish looks to have boosted yields through the Mallee, Wimmera and Western District. There is some interest in selling malt barley before the premium to feed disappears.

 

So nothing has really changed with disciplined grower selling helping to maintain prices with the odd pricing opportunity popping up into domestic feed shorts.


For further market commentary please contact the CGX team on 1800 000 410


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