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Grain Report Friday - 13th January

Our goal is to help growers and their agents determine the selling price for their grain by providing relevant price discovery each day. Check out the moves in overnight international markets and yesterday's actual traded prices across Australia. There's also market commentary giving context and comparisons to prices of international physical markets. If you need to change your offer price, simply edit it before market open.

What price do you want for your grain?

Chart including Wheat CBOT prices, Wheat Black Sea prices, Canola ICE prices and Canola MATIF prices

Grain trade prices for Australia Grain (wheat, barley, Sorghum, Lupins, Canola, Faba Beans, Oats, Chickpeas and lentils)

Look Out!

  • Well that was an interesting WASDE report!

  • I don’t know why I left the BBQ at Lindsay Fox's Portsea holiday home early to come and analyse it. Me and Dan were on the beers, and Albo was playing tennis, but stopped after one serve, pulling up sore. He is not built for tennis.

  • Back to the WASDE.

  • I think we should change the name to “WASD-G” as in World Agriculture Supply and Demand Guess.

  • I did try and put a copyright on the name” WASD-NFI” but that was already taken.

  • Every man and his dog and even the plumber next door have the Russian crop down as 100 million tonnes.

  • The USDA didn’t change it, keeping it at 91 million tonnes.

  • They also kept the Aussie crop at 36.60 million tonnes, in agreement with another Government agency, ABARE, who had it down as 35.60 million tonnes.

  • Overall, the Yank’s Department of Ag upped world wheat production by less than 1 million tonnes to 781 million mt and ending stocks by 1 million tonnes to 268 million tonnes.

  • These numbers don’t matter a great deal, with world stocks to use ratio (S/U) at 34%. This means the world has 123 days of wheat left before we all starve to death.

  • But if we take away China, known as “Chinese Take Away”, the world stocks to use ratio is 19%, which is 2% lower than last year.

  • We have around 70 days of wheat left before we all die, apart from the gluten intolerant people, who will dance on our graves.

  • Or course the market reacted accordingly, scratching its head and Chicago wheat going up slightly.

  • But Kansas was up AUD $6.84 per tonne. Why?

It's CORN, a big lump with nobs.

It has the juice.

It’s the most beautiful thing.

It's corn, I can tell you all about it!

(I apologise to non Tik Tok people, who have no idea what that was about)

  • Anyway, CORN is a wheat price driver. Higher corn prices equal higher wheat prices, and in the USA, where the feedlots are in Texas, they will feed some wheat including Hard Red Winter (Kansas futures contract) instead of corn.

  • I have been banging on about some concerns with corn, well that just popped last night.

  • World corn production (excluding China) dropped 9 million tonnes.

  • “Sorry, what was that Apollo 13….you’re breaking up”

  • They knocked 5 million of the US crop down to 349 million tonnes and 3 million of the Argie crop, down to 52 million tonnes.

  • The Yanks adjusted down world consumption by 7 million tonnes, so ending stocks are only down 3 million tonnes.

  • This makes sense as we feed more wheat and other grains into animals as corn prices rise due to a tighter balance sheet.

  • But wait, wouldn’t that also mean the World Wheat S&D should tighten, as wheat consumption would increase?

  • The answer is yes; but the cagey Yanks adjusted wheat consumption by piddly 210,000 metric tonnes, which is 0.03%.

  • This doesn’t add up.

  • The Take-Away today, apart from some Sweet and Sour, is corn is getting interesting, and should support world prices.

  • It was up AUD $8.47 per tonne last night.

  • Keep an eye on Argie weather, as every tonne now becomes important.

Most importantly we're always here to help!

Please give us a call or email if you have any questions.

Call 1800 000 410 or Email

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