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Grain Report Friday - 12th January

Market Almost Open - CGX daily report

What price do you want for your grain?

Overnight moves in international markets and yesterday's actual traded prices across Australia are below to help you determine your price. If you need to change your offer price, simply edit it before market open.

Chart including Wheat CBOT prices, Wheat Black Sea prices, Canola ICE prices and Canola MATIF prices

Grain trade prices for Australia Grain (wheat, barley, Sorghum, Lupins, Canola, Faba Beans, Oats, Chickpeas and lentils)

Dominic Hogan Outlook commodities comments

Look Out!

  • Markets softer again last night, apart from beans and Winnipeg canola, which were both up slightly.

  • The International Grains Council released their world commodity stab in the dark last night.

  • They increased world wheat production by 1 million tonnes to 788 million tonnes and stocks held by the major exporters were up by 2 million tonnes to 60 million tonnes.

  • The USDA has world production at 783 million tonnes and stocks held by majors at 59 million tonnes, which my plumber mate next door reckons is too high by 5 million tonnes.

  • More importantly, they called the Brazilian corn crop 119.7 million tonnes, which is 10 million under the last guess the Yanks made in December.

  • They also dropped the Brazilian soybean crop by 7 million tonnes to 153 million tonnes. The USDA has this at 161 million tonnes.

  • The USDA will release their report tonight and surely they have to drop Brazilian corn and bean production.

  • The Aussie dollar is off 1.38 cents since the start of the year, which should add approximately AUD $10 to our prices, without a change in world prices.

  • Yet the ASX Jan 24 wheat contract has fallen AUD $17 since the start of the year.

  • FOB (Free on Board) values according to CME/Platts ex WA have fallen USD $4.5 since the start of the year.

  • But I think that’s a load of hogwash.

  • On the 1st Jan 2024, Aussie wheat was quoted at USD $287.50 FOB or AUD $422 FOB.

  • Today is quoted at USD $283 FOB or AUD $423 FOB.

  • That equals a zero change in returns when you buy a calculator and crunch the numbers, but the ASVX Jan wheat contract has fallen AUD $17.

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