Grain Report Friday - 11th October

What price do you want for your grain?

Overnight moves in international markets and yesterday's actual traded prices across Australia are below to help you determine your price. If you need to change your offer price, simply edit it before market open.

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Look Out!

Another similar night on grain exchanges with wheat leading the way as focus shifts to supply concerns and markets build in risk premiums.

Dry weather for Russia and concerted Russian attacks on Ukrainian shipping infrastructure has the market eyeing tightening wheat stocks which are expected to hit a 9-year low this year.

Russia has launched over 60 attacks on Ukrainian port infrastructure (destroying over 300 port infrastructure facilities and nearly 200 cars) in the past 3 months as it seeks to limit Ukrainian grain exports. Shipping insurance premiums are rising (up to 30% of vessel value from just 1-2% normally) while there is talk of some companies cancelling shipping out of Ukraine ports.

Russia announced better than expected grain production in 2024. Take it with a grain of salt!

Traders are noting that exporters outside of the Black Sea are reluctant sellers at current prices in anticipation of higher prices. Aussie (we have lost maybe 2-3mt since last forecasts, USDA has us in for 32mt which would be tops) and Argie (Argentine forecasters clipped its crop 1mt during the week to 19.5mt, USDA has Argie’s at 18mt) crops are under pressure and nth hemisphere winter crops are off to a very poor start.

USDA’s October S&D report released Friday night could prove to be significant in terms of where speculators decide to sit their money. The October report can often be a game changer, and it will be interesting to see USDA’s approach.

Corn and soybeans were weaker as the US harvest progresses (will be mostly done in another week or two) and showers start in northern Brazil. Traders are wary of the USDA announcing larger US corn and soybean production Friday.

Canadian canola fell (demand?) and European rapeseed futures rose by about the same amount. ABARES Aussie canola crop forecast of 5.5mt must be seriously under pressure. Aussie canola following European prices higher.

$A is at 67.35USc gaining some strength from higher US inflation figures which reduce the possibility of an aggressive easing in US interest rates.

BOM most of the rainfall so far east of major cropping areas. Forecast has limited rain for WA and Eyre Peninsula but 10-15mm for remainder of SA and north-west VIC and then 15-50mm for rest of VIC and NSW. The forecast is drier for QLD with 10-25mm for QLD cropping areas. No impact.

ASX was active again trading to a high of $341/t before last trade at $337/t (+2)

24/25 Best Bids

Kwinana APW1 $372/t (n/c), BFED1 $320/t (n/c), CAN1 $811/t (+14), CAG1 $733/t (+12)

Geelong APW1 $355/t (n/c), BAR1 $324/t (n/c), CAN EU $752/t (+7), CANG $704/t (+9)

Clear Grain Exchange (CGX) Open Market Call

Steady to higher, basis improving in southern markets

For further market commentary please contact the CGX team on 1800 000 410

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