top of page

Grain Report Wednesday - 15th February



Our goal is to help growers and their agents determine the selling price for their grain by providing relevant price discovery each day. Check out the moves in overnight international markets and yesterday's actual traded prices across Australia. There's also market commentary giving context and comparisons to prices of international physical markets. If you need to change your offer price, simply edit it before market open.


What price do you want for your grain?

Chart including Wheat CBOT prices, Wheat Black Sea prices, Canola ICE prices and Canola MATIF prices

Grain trade prices for Australia Grain (wheat, barley, Sorghum, Lupins, Canola, Faba Beans, Oats, Chickpeas and lentils)

Look Out!


  • Markets softened last night for no reason.

  • The tension in the Black Sea remains, which is underpinning world prices.

  • New crop, Jan 2024 APW is trading around the $410 Track East Coast.

  • At export parity, this would be around USD $320 FOB (Free on Board) East Coast and WA would be around USD $325 FOB.

  • US Hard Red Winter ex the Pacific NorthWest is quoted at USD $400 per tonne FOB. We compete with the US Pacific NorthWest into Asian markets.


  • However, before all get excited and plant wall to wall wheat crops, the Black Sea wheat for August is quoted by the CME/Platts exchange at USD $285.50 FOB.

  • The Russian wheat crop forecast for the 23/24 marketing year is forecast to be around 85 million tonnes, or 7 million tonnes less than this year.

  • Ukraine is forecast to produce 15 million tonnes, or 6 million tonnes less than this year.

  • These crops are in the ground, and there have already been some “dryness” concerns in Southern Russian key wheat growing regions.

  • Let’s pencil in Australia at 30 million tonnes. I don’t want to go the early crow and call it 36 million tonnes, as that will just put the moz on it.

  • I have just reduced the world 23/24 crop down by 19 million tonnes with these three major exporting countries.

  • Argie is the only country that had a shocker in 22/23, so let’s pencil them in at 20 million again, an increase of 8 million tonnes.

  • If we leave the Yanks, Canadian and Europe crops all around the same, the balance sheet of the major exporters will tighten and fall below 50 million tonnes, which is getting extremely tight.

  • If the Black Sea situation resolves, world values would soften, but would most likely be in the USD $260-USD $280 range.

  • Australian values would trade at USD $20-$30 over world bottom values. We are currently trading USD $30-$40 over bottom values now.


  • So the bottom of the market is AUD $380 Track East Coast or $400 FIS (Free in Store) WA for APW, at export parity.

  • And that’s if the world situation resolves itself.

  • Our new crop markets are trading the “Black Sea” risk premium.


Most importantly we're always here to help!

Please give us a call or email if you have any questions.


Call 1800 000 410 or Email support@cgx.com.au

21 views0 comments

Comments


Do you want to know more?
Subscribe to our newsletter.

Thanks for submitting!

bottom of page