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Grain Report Tuesday - 7th May

Market Almost Open - CGX daily report

What price do you want for your grain?

Overnight moves in international markets and yesterday's actual traded prices across Australia are below to help you determine your price. If you need to change your offer price, simply edit it before market open.

Chart including Wheat CBOT prices, Wheat Black Sea prices, Canola ICE prices and Canola MATIF prices

Grain trade prices for Australia Grain (wheat, barley, Sorghum, Lupins, Canola, Faba Beans, Oats, Chickpeas and lentils)

Dominic Hogan Outlook commodities comments

Look Out!

  • Boom, boom, boom let's go back to my room.

  • Markets exploded last night with Chicago wheat up AUD $13.

  • Dorothy clicked her heels and Kansas was up AUD $23 per tonne; Kaboom, show me the money.

  • Oilseeds took off as well with both soybeans and canola up solidly.

  • Corn was like the middle child, still up, but not as loved as much as the grains and oilseeds.

  • Since early March, Chicago wheat has rallied from AUD $289 per tonne to AUD $349 per tonne, so up AUD $60 per tonne.

  • Our market hasn’t followed at the same level, but ASX spot wheat has firmed from AUD $316 to AUD $352, up a solid AUD $36.

  • This means our basis has softened by AUD $24 per tonne from AUD $27 to AUD $3 today.

  • The markets have been firming, driven by the dryness through Southern Russia and now some frost damage concerns as the crop is more mature this year with warmer temperatures through March and April. 

  • There is also some dryness in Kansas, but we still have the US pencilled in for a pretty decent crop close to 55 million tonnes and increased stocks.

  • Also, some other crops are going backwards with the Ukrainian wheat crop dropping, the UK wheat crop reducing and now dryness in the major Canadian wheat growing region.

  • We also saw Get It India remove their import tariff for desi chickpeas. It won’t be long now before they remove the import tariff on wheat.

  • India’s stocks to use ratio for wheat is forecast to drop to around 6% or lower. The last time their ending stocks were this low was in 2006, 18 years ago.

  • And how much did India import that year; just a piddly 6.7 million tonnes.  

  • Also, in 2016 their stocks to use ratio dropped to 10% and they imported 6 million tonnes in that marketing year.

  • So, pencil India for some major wheat exports this year, because they cannot live on desi chickpeas alone.

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