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Grain Report Tuesday - 21st February

Our goal is to help growers and their agents determine the selling price for their grain by providing relevant price discovery each day. Check out the moves in overnight international markets and yesterday's actual traded prices across Australia. There's also market commentary giving context and comparisons to prices of international physical markets. If you need to change your offer price, simply edit it before market open.

What price do you want for your grain?

Chart including Wheat CBOT prices, Wheat Black Sea prices, Canola ICE prices and Canola MATIF prices

Grain trade prices for Australia Grain (wheat, barley, Sorghum, Lupins, Canola, Faba Beans, Oats, Chickpeas and lentils)

Look Out!

  • No USA markets last night as the Yanks celebrated President’s day.

  • The EU markets were also relatively quiet for wheat; however, rapeseed fell EU $5 or AUD $8 pmt (per metric tonne).

  • The AUD is also firmer overnight, which will see canola seed lowered today.

  • Current track values on the East Coast are around the AUD $750 for canola seed.

  • The WA total grain production was just over 26 million tonnes for the 22/23 season, which is a record, 8% higher than the 2021/22 crop.

  • Total wheat production in WA is forecast to be 13.93 million tonnes, barley 6.3 million tonnes and canola 4.30 million tonnes.

  • Let’s have a gander at barley.

  • To date, WA has exported 1.6 million tonnes of barley (October to February), which is approximately the same pace as last year.

  • We have forecast exports of barley out of WA for this year at around 4 million tonnes.

  • After Carry-In from last season, domestic demand and seed retention, the carry over barley stocks will be just under 2 million tonnes.

  • It always becomes a tough roll of the dice; does the farmer carry, hoping for higher prices, and what will drive prices higher?

  • International demand needs to increase, or world supply needs to fall away in the northern hemisphere to drive prices; or the AUD needs to drop, but like the Reserve Bank and all economists, I know nothing about currency.

  • Saudi imports of barley are reducing, now forecast to be around the low 4 million level.

  • If world values for feed barley are around the USD $280 FOB (Free on Board) level for the back half of 2023, at parity this would be equivalent to AUD $370 FIS (Free In Store) WA, which is AUD $60 over the market.

  • The big question mark is China? The WTO has until the end of March to hand down their decision on the Antidumping claim.

  • Will China remove the import tariff before this decision is handed down, which makes the WTO decision irrelevant, as we just get back on with trade.

  • If this trade resumes, one would expect it to be bullish barley prices, as it will see an increase in demand.

  • If this trade doesn’t resume, barley prices may be under some pressure on the West Coast and SA.

  • The balance sheet is a lot tighter on the East Coast, so the domestic market will need to work to keep barley from the boats.

  • So many things to think about, my head hurts.

Most importantly we're always here to help!

Please give us a call or email if you have any questions.

Call 1800 000 410 or Email

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