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Grain Report Monday- 15th January

Market Almost Open - CGX daily report

What price do you want for your grain?

Overnight moves in international markets and yesterday's actual traded prices across Australia are below to help you determine your price. If you need to change your offer price, simply edit it before market open.

Chart including Wheat CBOT prices, Wheat Black Sea prices, Canola ICE prices and Canola MATIF prices

Grain trade prices for Australia Grain (wheat, barley, Sorghum, Lupins, Canola, Faba Beans, Oats, Chickpeas and lentils)

Dominic Hogan Outlook commodities comments

Look Out!

  • The Friday night Yankie World Supply and Demand, pick a number out of a hat was like the West Coast Eagles season last year, a complete disappointment.

  • Actually, it’s a forecast, not a review of the past, so it’s probably more like the Eagles season this year, another complete disappointment.

  • They really didn’t make too many changes to the wheat balance sheet, as expected, as the Southern hemisphere crops are pretty much in the bin and the Northern Hemisphere crops are lying dormant under snow.  

  • I am not sure how their calculator works, but they increased the wheat carry in stocks by 2 million tonnes and increased world production by 1 million tonnes, which has the Ruskie crop increased to 91 million tonnes.

  • Things are looking very good in the Black Sea region, which is not great for prices in the 24/25 season.

  • So total wheat supply was increased by 3 million tonnes for the 23/24 season.

  • They then increased world consumption by 5 million tonnes to 796.44 million tonnes.

  • Now get out the magic calculator. World supply is increased by 3 million tonnes more minus 5 million tonnes more consumption equals a drop in ending stocks of 2 million tonnes.  

  • That adds up.

  • No, it doesn’t according to the Yanks. They increased world ending stocks by 2 million tonnes.  

  • Using my calculator, that just doesn’t add up.  

  • However, no one was watching the wheat numbers. 

  • The market was focussed on how much they would shave off the Brazilian corn and bean crops.

  • These changes would be the price driver for the wheat and oilseed markets over the next 6 months.

  • Every forecaster in the world is calling the Brazilian corn crop a sub 120 million tonnes.

  • Even my plumber mate next door reckons they will be lucky to reach 115 million tonnes.

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