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Grain Report Friday - 9th February

Market Almost Open - CGX daily report

What price do you want for your grain?

Overnight moves in international markets and yesterday's actual traded prices across Australia are below to help you determine your price. If you need to change your offer price, simply edit it before market open.

Chart including Wheat CBOT prices, Wheat Black Sea prices, Canola ICE prices and Canola MATIF prices

Grain trade prices for Australia Grain (wheat, barley, Sorghum, Lupins, Canola, Faba Beans, Oats, Chickpeas and lentils)

Dominic Hogan Outlook commodities comments

Look Out!

  • Well looks like Biden his time is going to be re-elected if the USDA keep putting out fake reports to contain inflation.

  • Donald Duck should come out and call last night’s world supply and demand guess Fake News.

  • The corn supply and demand was neutral to slightly bullish, but the market sulked like a 5 year child who didn’t get 50 presents from Santa; they expected more, folded their arms and traded lower.

  • As predicted, they didn’t shave much off the Brazilian corn crop, reducing it only 3 million tonnes from 127 million tonnes to 124 million tonnes.

  • The rest of the world has this crop closer to 115 million tonnes. Conab came out yesterday with their forecast at 113.7 million tonnes, which is only 10 million tonnes lower than the Yanks.

  • They didn’t change the Argie corn crop, leaving at 55 million tonnes, which is slightly lower than some other forecasts.

  • The 3 million tonne drop in the Brazilian corn crop was the only change they made to the corn balance sheet, resulting in world corn production, dropping it from 1.236 billion tonnes to 1.233 billion tonnes and ending stocks down by 3 million tonnes.  Nothing else to see here at all.

  • Wheat was a dead rubber, as most Northern hemisphere crops are lying dormant under snow and the southern hemisphere harvest is over and in the bin.

  • Overall, they upped world wheat production by 1 million tonnes to 786 million tonnes but dropped ending stocks by 0.5 million tonnes.

  • Nothing to see here.

  • Soybeans was a bearish report, but the market traded up.

  • You’d sooner hold back the tide than tame the oilseed market Jim.

  • But the only real change they made was to increase the carry-in stocks from 102 million tonnes to 103.6 million tonnes.

  • They shaved 1 million off the Brazilian bean crop, reducing it to 156 million tonnes. The South American crop forecasting guru Dr. Cordonnier has this crop forecast at 149 million tonnes, but what would he know?   

  • Conab also released their guess last night and came out at 149.4 million tonnes.

  • We don’t look at this balance sheet very often, but the world barley balance sheet is tight with production in 23/24 down almost 9 million tonnes and ending stocks down almost 2 million tonnes to 18.38 million tonnes.

  • World consumption has dropped 6 million tonnes to offset the tighter supply and lower corn prices would displace some demand into feed rations.

  • Overall a boring report with no real fireworks.

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