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Tuesday 06th December

Australia's Independent Grain Report

Your new daily price discovery  

Our goal is to help growers and their agents determine the selling price for their grain by providing relevant price discovery each day.

Check out the moves in overnight international markets and yesterday's actual traded prices across Australia. There's also market commentary giving context and comparisons to prices of international physical markets.

If you need to change your offer price, simply edit it before market open.

What price do you want for your grain?

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Tuesday 06th December
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Markets smashed again last night.
There’s “ABARE” in there and a chair as well; so, we can sit down and take a rest. ABARE (Australian Bureau of Agricultural & Resource Economics) came out with their crop forecast, and it’s a Whopper with Cheese! It is the second largest winter crop production on record, around 900,000 tonnes lower than last year’s record.

Total winter crop production of 62.025 million tonnes vs 62.967 million tonnes last year.
Wheat: 36.567 million tonnes vs 36.347 last year
Barley: 13.395 million tonnes vs 13.906 last year
Canola: 7.331 million tonnes vs 7.052 last year

The production loss is one main reason our winter crop is slightly lower than last year, however there were also lower production with chickpeas down 500,000 tonnes while faba beans, lupins and oats were all down around 200,000 tonnes per commodity.

Now before we go out and sell the crop, the farm and our grandmother, the United States, the EU and Russia are likely to see dry conditions over the next few months. A production problem in any of these majors would see the wheat balance sheet tighten and support markets.

Add to this, South America is expected to also be dry, impacting on Argentina’s corn and bean crop. Argentina is a major corn exporter, and as I keep banging on, corn is a lot tighter balance sheet and less corn leads to wheat being fed, which tightens the wheat balance sheet and pushes up prices.

Offsetting the potential for production issues in the Northern Hemisphere, it is going to remain wet on the East Coast and SA through December, which may cause some further issues. Unfortunately, there is some heavy rain forecast next week on the East Coast.

Finally, the East Coast is forecast to produce 3 million tonnes less wheat and barley this year compared to last.

East Coast Wheat: 16.66 million tonnes vs 18.86 last year (almost 2 million mt lower)
East Coast Barley 5.28 million tonnes vs 6.1 last year

This, along with some more weather concerns, is supportive to prices on the East Coast, if world prices remain supported. If the rains continue, and Victoria and SA are impacted, milling wheat, malt barley and potentially BAR1 prices will be supported.

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